'It's not done': New Iowa poll shows Trump holds large lead but other candidates have an opening
A new Iowa poll shows 42% of Iowa Republicans plan to caucus for Trump, giving him a sizeable lead over his Republican competitors. But a slim majority of likely GOP caucusgoers also say they're open to supporting a different candidate.
A new Iowa poll shows 42% of Iowa Republicans plan to caucus for Trump, giving him a sizeable lead over his Republican competitors. But a slim majority of likely GOP caucusgoers also say they're open to supporting a different candidate.
A new Iowa poll shows 42% of Iowa Republicans plan to caucus for Trump, giving him a sizeable lead over his Republican competitors. But a slim majority of likely GOP caucusgoers also say they're open to supporting a different candidate.
With less than five months until the caucuses, Donald Trump holds a sizeable lead in Iowa. 42% of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers support the former president, according to the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released Monday morning.
The poll found Trump with a double-digit lead over Ron DeSantis, the second-highest polling candidate at 19%. Every other Republican candidate is polling in single digits.
"The unsurprising aspect is that Trump still has quite a significant lead over DeSantis and certainly way above other Republican challengers," vlog political analyst Dennis Goldford said. "The surprising thing is that Trump, at this point, is the first choice of roughly 42% of likely caucusgoers. It's less than a majority. That's interesting."
Other candidates have until Jan. 15 to cut into Trump's support in Iowa. It's a sizeable lead to crack but not insurmountable, according to Goldford.
"If I were in this caucus race right now, I would want to be Donald Trump," he said. "But it's still interesting. It's not done and over with at this point."
The poll also asked whether respondents could be persuaded to support another candidate or if their mind is made up.
Nearly 28% of likely GOP caucusgoers say they're locked into their support for Donald Trump. 12% of Iowa Republicans have their minds made up to support another candidate. But 52%, a slim majority, say they could be persuaded to support someone other than they're current first choice.
Goldford says some Iowa Trump supporters could defect to caucus for another candidate.
"There's the possibility, not the certainty, but the possibility that other Republicans may decide it's just not worth it anymore. That's certainly what the anti-Trump Republicans are trying to foster," Goldford said. "Is it likely? Is it guaranteed? No. But we've got four and a half months or so to find out."
The poll also found that Trump's legal challenges may be helping him win support. While the Iowa poll was being conducted, a grand jury in Georgia indicted Trump for attempts to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.
The Des Moines Register found that Trump's poll numbers in Iowa grew after he was indicted in Georgia.
It also found that 65% of likely Republican caucusgoers do not believe that Trump has committed any serious crimes even as he faces 91 criminal charges.
Goldford says the support "certainly gives [Trump] a strength and a base" as he enters "difficult terrain." Once trials for each of his four criminal cases begin, Trump will have to split time between the campaign trail and courtrooms in four separate cities.
"Trump's political viability lives or dies on whether or not he can hold on to that rock solid core who believe him and the way he characterizes everything over any possible other explanation of why he has these difficulties," Goldford said. "Will that rock solid core crack? Or will it stay rock solid? That's our question for the next several months."