Iowa Poll: Trump maintains double-digit lead, DeSantis and Haley tie for second
The latest , released Monday, found Donald Trump still has a commanding lead in Iowa in the race to 2024 caucuses. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are now tied for a distant second place.
Forty-three percent of likely caucusgoers support Trump, while Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are both polling at 16%. Nikki Haley has gained 10 points since August, when the same poll put her at 6%. Comparatively, support for DeSantis has dropped by 3% since August.
vlog political analyst Dennis Goldford says the poll shows "it is a battle for second place" in Iowa.
"Nikki Haley's the flavor of the month," Goldford said. "She did very well at the first two debates. She's been running extensive advertising here in Iowa to the extent that Ron DeSantis, who is the preliminary non-Trump favorite, his supporters have been running ads against Nikki Haley, fighting for that second place spot."
The poll also looked at levels of enthusiasm among likely caucusgoers. 47% of Trump supporters say they're extremely enthusiastic about him. Comparatively, 25% of people planning to caucus for DeSantis say they're extremely enthusiastic. Even fewer said the same for Haley at 19%.
"[Trump's] in a very enviable position at this point," Goldford said. "That being said, we still have two and a half months until the caucuses. It's hard to see how Trump could flame out at this point, but you never say never in politics."
However, Bob Vander Plaats, the CEO of The Family Leader, a conservative Christian organization, believes it's still "an open race" in Iowa.
"The former president, who has 100% name I.D. and people have made up their mind on him, he's under 50%. He's at 43%. So that can't be a great day for him," Vander Plaats said. "If you go inside those poll numbers, there's a question that Ann Selzer has, 'Who's your first and who's your second choice?' and in that question, Trump and DeSantis are dead even, 67% each."
A majority of likely caucusgoers, 54%, also say they could be persuaded to change their first-choice pick. However, Trump supporters are much more locked in.
Sixty-three percent say their mind is made up for Trump, while 37% say they could be persuaded to choose someone else. Thirty percent say they're locked in for DeSantis. Seventy percent of DeSantis supporters say they could still be persuaded. Seventy-four percent of Haley supporters say they could be convinced to support someone else, while 26% say their mind is firmly made up.
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