INVESTIGATION. ASHTON AND COMMITMENT 2024. WE ARE JUST DAYS AWAY FROM THE IOWA CAUCUSES AND DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD AFFECT TURNOUT ON MONDAY NIGHT, vlog SENIOR REPORTER TODD MAGEL IS LIVE AT THE CAUCUS MEDIA CENTER IN DOWNTOWN DES MOINES WITH WHAT OUR BRUTAL WINTER WEATHER MEANS FOR THE CANDIDATES, TODD. STACEY AND BEN, WE’RE NICE AND WARM INSIDE THE IOWA EVENTS CENTER, BUT THIS IS GROUND ZERO. MORE THAN A THOUSAND REPORTERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD WILL BE HERE THIS WEEK. MOST OF THEM ARE NOT USED TO COLD WEATHER. CERTAINLY IOWANS ARE USED TO IT. BUT YOU HAVE TO ASK IOWANS, DO THEY REALLY WANT TO HEAD OUT THAT NIGHT WHEN THE WIND CHILL WILL BE 20 BELOW ZERO? THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MONDAY WILL BE JUST BELOW ZERO, FAR COLDER THAN THE COLDEST CAUCUS ON RECORD. THAT WAS 16 DEGREES IN 2004. NOW THE WIND CHILL MONDAY WILL BE, AS WE MENTIONED, 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AGAIN, MUCH COLDER THAN -21 DEGREES. THAT WAS BACK WAY BACK IN 1972. SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN? vlog POLITICAL ANALYST DENNIS GOLDFORD SAYS THE WEATHER LIKELY WILL AFFECT THE IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS. FEWER PEOPLE MAY TURN OUT TO VOTE FOR THEIR FAVORITE CANDIDATE. AND ALL THOSE POLL RESULTS AND THE OUTCOMES CERTAINLY COULD CHANGE THE CONCERN FOR THE VARIOUS CANDIDATES. ASIDE FROM NOT BEING ABLE TO GET TO SCHEDULE VENUES, IS THAT THEIR SUPPORTERS JUST MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET TO THEIR CAUCUS SITES OR THEY MAY DECIDE IT’S A DONE DEAL OR IT’S JUST NOT WORTH IT TO THEM. AND GOLDFORD ALSO TOLD ME THAT TRUMP, OF COURSE, IS EXPECTED TO WIN THE CAUCUSES, SO SOME PEOPLE MIGHT DECIDE, WELL, IT’S TOO COLD, HE’S GOING TO WIN ANYWAY. WHY DO WE WANT TO BRAVE THE ELEMENTS? SO STAY TUNED. WE’
Will Iowa’s deep freeze influence turnout for the caucuses?
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Updated: 8:40 PM CST Jan 11, 2024
For everything presidential candidates can control while campaigning ahead of Jan. 15's Iowa caucuses, the weather isn't one of them. The forecast calls for a high temperature below zero on Monday, which would make this the coldest caucuses ever. The wind chill could dip into the range of negative 20 to negative 30 degrees, far colder than any other caucus on record. So what does that mean for the expected turnout? “Bad weather like this throws an extremely large and heavy monkey wrench into everybody's caucus plans,” vlog Political Analyst Dennis Goldford said.Simply put, such frigid weather means fewer people are likely — or able — to go out and support their chosen candidate. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says he's counting on sturdy Iowans to ignore the weather. “Your vote matters here. For those who brave the elements, you absolutely are going to be influential in determining the direction of this country,” DeSantis said.Get the latest Iowa forecast from vlogIOWA CAUCUS PRIMER:What you need to know about 2024 caucuses2024 US presidential caucuses, primaries, explainedMaps: A look at Iowa caucus results from the past 20 yearsHow will the Iowa Republican caucuses work in 2024?How will the Iowa Democratic caucuses work in 2024? Experts say Trump should be worried, too. The Iowa caucuses are all about expectations.“Did you do better than expected or worse than expected? And at this point, I think Mr. Trump is more concerned about meeting expectations with those sky-high poll numbers than he's concerned about Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley,” Goldford said. "We will see how that turns out." Des Moines high, low temperatures each caucus day since 1972Feb. 3, 2020: 36°/29°Feb. 1, 2016: 47°/27°Jan. 3, 2012: 40°/10°Jan. 3, 2008: 30°/4°Jan. 19, 2004: 16°* (Coldest high)/2°Jan. 24, 2000: 41°/5°Feb. 12, 1996: 30°/22°Feb. 10, 1992: 44°/24°Feb. 8, 1988: 36°/10°Feb. 20, 1984: 49°/22°Jan. 21, 1980: 33°/24°Jan. 19, 1976: 42°/7°Jan. 24, 1972: 25°/-4°* (Coldest low)WATCH: What to know about 2024 caucusesWATCH: 2024 may be coldest Iowa caucuses everPAST CAUCUS RESULTS
DES MOINES, Iowa — For everything presidential candidates can control while campaigning ahead of Jan. 15's Iowa caucuses, the weather isn't one of them.
The forecast calls for a high temperature below zero on Monday, which would make this the coldest caucuses ever. The wind chill could dip into the range of negative 20 to negative 30 degrees, far colder than any other caucus on record.
So what does that mean for the expected turnout?
“Bad weather like this throws an extremely large and heavy monkey wrench into everybody's caucus plans,” vlog Political Analyst Dennis Goldford said.
Simply put, such frigid weather means fewer people are likely — or able — to go out and support their chosen candidate.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says he's counting on sturdy Iowans to ignore the weather.
“Your vote matters here. For those who brave the elements, you absolutely are going to be influential in determining the direction of this country,” DeSantis said.
Get the latest Iowa forecast from vlog
IOWA CAUCUS PRIMER:
Experts say Trump should be worried, too. The Iowa caucuses are all about expectations.
“Did you do better than expected or worse than expected? And at this point, I think Mr. Trump is more concerned about meeting expectations with those sky-high poll numbers than he's concerned about Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley,” Goldford said. "We will see how that turns out."
Des Moines high, low temperatures each caucus day since 1972
- Feb. 3, 2020: 36°/29°
- Feb. 1, 2016: 47°/27°
- Jan. 3, 2012: 40°/10°
- Jan. 3, 2008: 30°/4°
- Jan. 19, 2004: 16°* (Coldest high)/2°
- Jan. 24, 2000: 41°/5°
- Feb. 12, 1996: 30°/22°
- Feb. 10, 1992: 44°/24°
- Feb. 8, 1988: 36°/10°
- Feb. 20, 1984: 49°/22°
- Jan. 21, 1980: 33°/24°
- Jan. 19, 1976: 42°/7°
- Jan. 24, 1972: 25°/-4°* (Coldest low)
WATCH: What to know about 2024 caucuses
WATCH: 2024 may be coldest Iowa caucuses ever
PAST CAUCUS RESULTS
