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How the Associated Press is preparing to call the most unique election in US history

How the Associated Press is preparing to call the most unique election in US history
As Election Day approaches, all eyes are on the swing states and the Electoral College votes they hold in the United States winner take all voting system. If the last few elections taught us anything, it's a history lesson and how crucial these states can be in picking our president. In orderto win in 2020 President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden need to claim at least 270 electoral votes. This road 2 to 70 is even more challenging because the ongoing pandemic has made voting confusing for Americans and campaigning difficult for the candidates. Additional obstacles, like long early voting lines and few ballot boxes, may also prove to impact the number of voters in key counties. So let's take a closer look at the swing states with the highest number of electoral votes and which way they've swung in the past. Ever since Florida's high profile recount of the Bush versus Gore election in 2000, Florida has developed a reputation for being a controversial swing state. With the exception of 1992 Florida has voted for the winner of the presidential election from 1964 to 2016 the state's electoral votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. After going to Barack Obama in both 2012 and 2000 and eight, George W. Bush won Florida in 2004. We're going to win this state. We're going to win four more years in the White House. We're going to make our country greater than it has ever been. This the most important election in our lifetimes. You could make all the difference here in Florida. You can determine the outcome. This election, a true swing state. Both 2020 candidates have made several visits to Florida. In a final push for votes, Pennsylvania proved to be a dagger to Dems in 2016 when the state's electoral votes went to Trump voting blue. Since 1992 it flipped. Read that election cycle. Overall, Pennsylvania has voted for the presidential winner in 46 elections this year. Pennsylvania, a state with ties to Biden, will be one to watch. Next up. Ohio, the constant swing states electoral votes went to Trump in 2016. Obama won Ohio in both 2012 and 2008. Bush took the state in 2004 and 2000 Since 1964 no candidate has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Just next door is Michigan. The state's electoral votes went to Trump in 2016 but from 2000 to 2012 voted for the Democratic presidential nominee, similar to Wisconsin. It had previously been a Democratic stranglehold. Since its admission to the union in 18 37 Michigan has participated in 46 presidential elections and supported the winning candidate 33 times. North Carolina is a state that typically votes read but has gone for Democratic candidates in the past. The state's electoral votes went to Trump in 2016 Romney in 2012 Obama in 2000 and eight and Bush in 2004 and 2000. In fact, since 19 sixties, North Carolina has only voted for the Democratic presidential candidate four times.
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How the Associated Press is preparing to call the most unique election in US history
Video above: A look at the important swing states in the 2020 electionTwo centuries of election cycles in the United States could not have prepared the country for what 2020 held in store.A deadly pandemic. Millions of mail-in ballots. Unprecedented early voter turnout. Stadium-sized polling places.Despite that, Election Day operations at the Associated Press will remain largely unchanged as it uses its 174 years of experience, experts in race-calling and nearly 5,000 stringers around the country to collect data from county offices and election precincts to help call the most unique general election in U.S. history.Julie Pace, Washington bureau chief at the Associated Press, said that although 2020 has presented unconventional circumstances, the way AP calculates numbers from precincts, collects data from counties across the country and uses history as a barometer makes Election Day 2020 not terribly different from any other.The AP’s election team members throughout the year have reviewed their procedures, as they saw the vast increase in mail-in and early voting. They also will adjust for states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which do not count mail-in ballots until Election Day.“It is something that we prepare for for months, and frankly, kind of a year or more in advance,” Pace said. “We certainly anticipated that there would be some increase in mail-in and early voting, because we've just seen the trend lines moving in that direction. But we didn't expect that it would be at the level.“But we have a setup that looks pretty similar this year to what we have had in the past years.”The Associated Press will use terms such as “too close to call” and “too early to call” when approaching decisions about races. In a departure from past elections, “precincts reporting” will likely be kept out of AP’s playbook.Pace said the term has been rendered inconsequential in a pandemic election and can “give a false impression” of the numbers, particularly in states that have used stadiums as voting sites.“That could be one precinct, but it's a massive precinct,” Pace said. “So and then in the county next to it, you could have a very, very tiny precinct. That's two precincts reporting, but it gives you a completely skewed view of how much of the vote is in. It's just not very precise.”As for making race calls throughout the night, here’s a look at what to expect to hear from the Associated Press.‘Too early to call’The AP will use this term when there is not enough information to make a decision. That could be, for example, because they know they still need data from a large county that could influence a race.It’s an acknowledgement that while they have collected some data, “we might be right, we might get to that point, but right now, it’s too early,” Pace said.‘Too close to call’Pace said the AP will use “too close to call” as a final or near-final description of a race. She said using “too close to call” accounts for states that, for example, have automatic recount options. States make their own rules about how close a race must be in order to trigger a recount or recanvass of ballots.“If the race gets into that territory, we don't call it,” Pace said. “Sometimes we think we might be able to — we feel pretty good about where things are, but we don't want to get involved in a recount. So that becomes a ‘too close to call’ race.”Video: Rossen Reports: How safe is voting in person?No projectionsDiffering from many media outlets around the country, the AP will not project winners of any races. “We only declare winners,” Pace said.She said it’s part of building trust among readers that once the AP makes a call, it was the correct call — and one that isn’t being held up by any recounts, legal challenges or outstanding vote-counting that could sway it.“We only want to (declare a winner) once,” she said. “It's really part of trying to build confidence in our race call and give people confidence that when the AP says that this person is the winner, that they really are.”Declaring a winnerPace said declaring a winner on election night will depend largely on the margins of difference in each state and race.She cautioned that not declaring a winner that night is not an indication of voter fraud.“We do not have a history in this country of voter fraud,” she said. “There are little pockets of issues that pop up in some states, but in terms of widespread voter fraud, that's just not something that we have experienced here (and) it's not something that we are projecting for this year.”Waiting to call a race, she said, likely means there is more information that needs to be sorted out, such as a recount or recanvass or a legal challenge that halted counting or extended voting.“I would really implore people to keep that in mind,” Pace said. “I think there could be a lot of misinformation that fills the void between polls closing and making a race call, if it does extend for a day or several days. But almost certainly, it just means that the process is playing out.”History as an indicatorPace said the 2020 presidential race presents an interesting dynamic. States that are not historically swing states appear to be leaning that way, such as Georgia, Arizona and Texas.The history of how a state votes overall can be taken into consideration when making calls, but Pace said the AP also must whittle down to pockets within those states.“You look at ways that key areas might be voting compared to other key areas in other states,” she said. “So, yes, the Atlanta suburbs have been shifting in the last couple of years — look at that historical trend. But you also can compare suburbs in Atlanta to suburbs in other states and watch for that.”History gives the AP a good place to start, particularly when accounting for the outstanding votes. If, for example, a county in the Florida panhandle that President Donald Trump won with 90% of the vote in 2016 remains outstanding on election night 2020, the AP can reasonably call that county for Trump, Pace said.Preparation and executionJust before AP’s team started working from home, Pace said, the team got a general election trial run on Super Tuesday. Then, the pandemic struck.Pace said the AP’s election team has gotten ample practice in communicating virtually during the coronavirus pandemic. They have been working from home since mid-March, including during the primaries, many of which got pushed back as a result of the pandemic. A small group will work from the Washington bureau on Election Day.“I do think the communication and making sure that we have all of the technical infrastructure that we have in the bureau in position (is important) because those race calls and our coverage of them is so critical.” For more information on how the AP calculates votes, uses polling data and more, click here.

Video above: A look at the important swing states in the 2020 election

Two centuries of election cycles in the United States could not have prepared the country for what 2020 held in store.

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A deadly pandemic. Millions of mail-in ballots. Unprecedented early voter turnout. Stadium-sized polling places.

Despite that, Election Day operations at the Associated Press will remain largely unchanged as it uses its 174 years of experience, experts in race-calling and nearly 5,000 stringers around the country to collect data from county offices and election precincts to help call the most unique general election in U.S. history.

Julie Pace, Washington bureau chief at the Associated Press, said that although 2020 has presented unconventional circumstances, the way AP calculates numbers from precincts, collects data from counties across the country and uses history as a barometer makes Election Day 2020 not terribly different from any other.

The AP’s election team members throughout the year have reviewed their procedures, as they saw the vast increase in mail-in and early voting. They also will adjust for states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which do not count mail-in ballots until Election Day.

“It is something that we prepare for for months, and frankly, kind of a year or more in advance,” Pace said. “We certainly anticipated that there would be some increase in mail-in and early voting, because we've just seen the trend lines moving in that direction. But we didn't expect that it would be at the level.

“But we have a setup that looks pretty similar this year to what we have had in the past years.”

The Associated Press will use terms such as “too close to call” and “too early to call” when approaching decisions about races. In a departure from past elections, “precincts reporting” will likely be kept out of AP’s playbook.

Pace said the term has been rendered inconsequential in a pandemic election and can “give a false impression” of the numbers, particularly in states that have used stadiums as voting sites.

“That could be one precinct, but it's a massive precinct,” Pace said. “So and then in the county next to it, you could have a very, very tiny precinct. That's two precincts reporting, but it gives you a completely skewed view of how much of the vote is in. It's just not very precise.”

As for making race calls throughout the night, here’s a look at what to expect to hear from the Associated Press.

‘Too early to call’

The AP will use this term when there is not enough information to make a decision. That could be, for example, because they know they still need data from a large county that could influence a race.

It’s an acknowledgement that while they have collected some data, “we might be right, we might get to that point, but right now, it’s too early,” Pace said.

‘Too close to call’

Pace said the AP will use “too close to call” as a final or near-final description of a race. She said using “too close to call” accounts for states that, for example, have automatic recount options. States make their own rules about how close a race must be in order to trigger a recount or recanvass of ballots.

“If the race gets into that territory, we don't call it,” Pace said. “Sometimes we think we might be able to — we feel pretty good about where things are, but we don't want to get involved in a recount. So that becomes a ‘too close to call’ race.”

Video: Rossen Reports: How safe is voting in person?

No projections

Differing from many media outlets around the country, the AP will not project winners of any races.

“We only declare winners,” Pace said.

She said it’s part of building trust among readers that once the AP makes a call, it was the correct call — and one that isn’t being held up by any recounts, legal challenges or outstanding vote-counting that could sway it.

“We only want to (declare a winner) once,” she said. “It's really part of trying to build confidence in our race call and give people confidence that when the AP says that this person is the winner, that they really are.”

Declaring a winner

Pace said declaring a winner on election night will depend largely on the margins of difference in each state and race.

She cautioned that not declaring a winner that night is not an indication of voter fraud.

“We do not have a history in this country of voter fraud,” she said. “There are little pockets of issues that pop up in some states, but in terms of widespread voter fraud, that's just not something that we have experienced here (and) it's not something that we are projecting for this year.”

Waiting to call a race, she said, likely means there is more information that needs to be sorted out, such as a recount or recanvass or a legal challenge that halted counting or extended voting.

“I would really implore people to keep that in mind,” Pace said. “I think there could be a lot of misinformation that fills the void between polls closing and making a race call, if it does extend for a day or several days. But almost certainly, it just means that the process is playing out.”

History as an indicator

Pace said the 2020 presidential race presents an interesting dynamic. States that are not historically swing states appear to be leaning that way, such as Georgia, Arizona and Texas.

The history of how a state votes overall can be taken into consideration when making calls, but Pace said the AP also must whittle down to pockets within those states.

“You look at ways that key areas might be voting compared to other key areas in other states,” she said. “So, yes, the Atlanta suburbs have been shifting in the last couple of years — look at that historical trend. But you also can compare suburbs in Atlanta to suburbs in other states and watch for that.”

History gives the AP a good place to start, particularly when accounting for the outstanding votes. If, for example, a county in the Florida panhandle that President Donald Trump won with 90% of the vote in 2016 remains outstanding on election night 2020, the AP can reasonably call that county for Trump, Pace said.

Preparation and execution

Just before AP’s team started working from home, Pace said, the team got a general election trial run on Super Tuesday.

Then, the pandemic struck.

Pace said the AP’s election team has gotten ample practice in communicating virtually during the coronavirus pandemic. They have been working from home since mid-March, including during the primaries, many of which got pushed back as a result of the pandemic.

A small group will work from the Washington bureau on Election Day.

“I do think the communication and making sure that we have all of the technical infrastructure that we have in the bureau in position (is important) because those race calls and our coverage of them is so critical.”

For more information on how the AP calculates votes, uses polling data and more,