More than a week before Election Day, US exceeds early vote total for all of 2016

How will all this early voting affect election night? In what ways are the networks and news outlets getting ready for that? With me now is the senior vice president and executive editor of the Associated Press. Sally Busby. Sally. Thanks for being here. Good morning. How are you? I'm well, How are how are the rehearsals going? What do you call what the AP does in the weeks leading up to election night? What we do? Drill, we prepare. We obviously do an enormous amount of preparation. We work through various scenarios. We have final conversations with our crew of vote vote count stringers with all of our reporters. We do go through some scenarios. We test all our systems, all that sort of thing. And also, we are also obviously informed by, as you said, the amount of early vote. We do expect a big turnout this year, and so that gives us some indications of how election night will go. But obviously there's, you know, the voters really make the decisions in American elections, and so there's only so much you could test. You don't really know what's going thio be the final outcome. Well, the amount of early voting and mail in balloting. Make this take longer, or is it possible? Will have a result? Ah, projection a declaration earlier as a result of all the early voting. So I think the biggest factor that determines if there is a new early race call in early declaration of a winner or a later one is really the closeness of the race. That's the still the single single biggest factor. So if one candidate is, um, wins by a large margin, you're going to be able to determine that earlier in the night. If it is a closer race, it is much more likely to go longer. I think that's what history has always shown us. The difference this year is that there are so many more mail in ballots. There's also a lot of early in person voting as you just referenced. If you walk around in a lot of states right now, there are a lot of people in line not voting by mail, but voting early in person on Benny States count that early vote after they have counted the election day vote, and so because that number is so much higher this year, the advanced vote percentage is so much higher, it is possible that some states could release results somewhat later than in past years. That, I think, is the effect that the advanced vote will have on what happens on election night. So are you viewing it as election night or you viewing it as an election? Two days? How are you described me personally? We are very much prepared for the fact that it could go longer than election night. That's not entirely new. I do want to make that point. In 2004 a winner was not declared until the next morning, Wednesday morning. So this is not a new phenomenon in American elections. What is new this year is that the advanced vote is expected to be so much larger because of the pandemic. Remember that people were moving toward advanced voting, whether mail in ballots or early in person voting well before the pandemic started. Um, in both 2016 in 18 2040% of American voters around 40% of American voters voted before Election Day this year because the pandemic those numbers are really expected go up. Most estimates say it will probably be more than half of American voters. Um, but we are definitely because of that prepared that some states could release results slower, so we're definitely, I mean, it could happen on election night. I want to be clear about that, and that would be a perfectly normal outcome. It also could last until the next morning until the next afternoon or even later, so we are very much prepared for both scenarios.

Pre-election ballots cast for the November election have surpassed all of 2016 with nine days left until Election Day.More than 58.7 million Americans have voted so far, according to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.In 2016, around 58.3 million pre-election ballots were cast, including ballots in the three vote-by-mail states that year, according to a CNN analysis. That early vote accounted for about 42% of all ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.Pre-Election Day voting is skyrocketing nationwide amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and states are reporting record-breaking turnout as voters are energized to vote by mail or early in person before November.Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations and is giving insights into who is voting before November. Fifty-four percent of those 58.7 million votes already cast this cycle comes from CNN's 16 most competitively ranked states, which will play a crucial role in determining who wins the presidency this year.Among those states, Minnesota has currently seen the largest percentage increase in early voting turnout compared to last cycle, according to Catalist data from both years in 14 key states.By age, younger voters (age 18-29) are also casting significantly more ballots and make up a greater share of the pre-Election Day vote than they did around the same time four years ago in all of the key states with information available.Across all 14 of these key states, voters below the age of 30 have seen upticks in their share of the early vote compared to this point in 2016.Voters age 30 and above still comprise the vast majority of these early voters, but their share has dipped slightly from this time four years ago. The oldest voters — those 65 or older — have seen the greatest decline in their share of the early vote.Overall, the top three states that have seen the largest increases in early voting turnout so far all expanded access to mail or early voting this year.New Jersey, which has seen the largest increase with more than nine times as many ballots cast this year as in 2016 at this time, mailed ballots to all eligible voters in the state for the 2020 election. Delaware, which has seen more than seven times as many ballots cast as at this time four years ago, and Virginia, which has seen more than six times as many, are allowing any voter to vote by mail.Below is a look at the skyrocketing turnout in several key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016.FloridaTrump won Florida by a little over more than percentage point in 2016, and capturing the Sunshine State again this year is critical to his reelection prospects.While Florida Democrats maintain an advantage in pre-election turnout, Catalist data shows the gap narrowing as more voters participate in early voting across the state.Democrats now account for 43% of those early votes, while Republicans account for 36%. At this point in 2016, Republicans held a razor thin, approximately one-point lead in pre-election turnout.This high turnout among Florida Democrats is reflected in recent polling about voter behavior in the Sunshine State.New CNN polling conducted by SSRS shows about 35% of likely voters in Florida say they have already cast a ballot. Of that group, 71% say they back former Vice President Joe Biden and 27% back Trump. Fifty-six percent of those who have yet to cast a ballot say they back Trump, and 40% say they back Biden. This is not predictive of ultimate outcome, however, as polling shows Democrats nationwide are more likely to cast their ballots before Election Day than Republicans.North CarolinaNorth Carolina Democrats are also outpacing Republicans in their percentage of the pre-election votes, but once again, that margin is narrowing amid a surge in early voting in the Tar Heel State.About 40% of the early votes that Catalist has analyzed comes from Democrats compared to 30% from Republicans so far. This is similar to the partisan breakdown of pre-election day votes at this point in 2016.However, Republicans have narrowed the gap in their share of the early vote in recent weeks.PennsylvaniaIn Pennsylvania — a key state that Trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016 — Democrats continue to hold a significant advantage over Republicans in their share of ballots already cast, according to Catalist party data.About 70% of pre-election votes have come from Democrats so far, compared to about 20% from Republicans.MichiganMichigan's 16 electoral votes helped make Trump president four years ago when the state broke its six-election streak of voting for the Democratic presidential nominee.Turnout in the Wolverine State this century peaked in 2008 with more than 5 million votes cast for president. A 2018 ballot measure changed Michigan's rules to allow anyone to vote by mail without an excuse, and ballot returns this year are more than triple what they were at this time four years ago, according to Catalist data.A look at those returns by race shows ballots from Black voters make up 12% of the current vote, up from 8% at this time in the 2016 cycle. Democrats are hoping to increase turnout among Black voters in areas like Detroit in their quest to bring Michigan back into the blue column.ArizonaDemocrats looking to expand the electoral map are focusing heavily on Arizona's 11 electoral votes. The Biden campaign alone has already spent $14 million more in advertising than the Trump campaign, according to CMAG.Democrats now lead Republicans in their share of ballots cast so far, 42% to 34% respectively. At this time four years ago, Republicans' 41% of ballots cast at the time outpaced the 38% cast by Democrats, according to Catalist data.While this is good news for Democrats, slightly less than one-third of registered voters in the Grand Canyon State have no party affiliation, leaving plenty of room on both sides to drive up the vote in the final days of the campaign.

Pre-election ballots cast for the November election have surpassed all of 2016 with nine days left until Election Day.

More than 58.7 million Americans have voted so far, according to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist.

In 2016, around 58.3 million pre-election ballots were cast, including ballots in the three vote-by-mail states that year, according to a CNN analysis. That early vote accounted for about 42% of all ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.

Pre-Election Day voting is skyrocketing nationwide amid the , and states are reporting record-breaking turnout as voters are energized to vote by mail or early in person before November.

Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue-advocacy organizations and is giving insights into who is voting before November.

Fifty-four percent of those 58.7 million votes already cast this cycle comes from CNN's 16 most competitively ranked states, which will play a crucial role in determining who wins the presidency this year.

Among those states, Minnesota has currently seen the largest percentage increase in early voting turnout compared to last cycle, according to Catalist data from both years in 14 key states.

By age, younger voters (age 18-29) are also casting significantly more ballots and make up a greater share of the pre-Election Day vote than they did around the same time four years ago in all of the key states with information available.

Across all 14 of these key states, voters below the age of 30 have seen upticks in their share of the early vote compared to this point in 2016.

Voters age 30 and above still comprise the vast majority of these early voters, but their share has dipped slightly from this time four years ago. The oldest voters — those 65 or older — have seen the greatest decline in their share of the early vote.

Overall, the top three states that have seen the largest increases in early voting turnout so far all expanded access to mail or early voting this year.

New Jersey, which has seen the largest increase with more than nine times as many ballots cast this year as in 2016 at this time, mailed ballots to all eligible voters in the state for the 2020 election. Delaware, which has seen more than seven times as many ballots cast as at this time four years ago, and Virginia, which has seen more than six times as many, are allowing any voter to vote by mail.

Below is a look at the skyrocketing turnout in several key states that President Donald Trump won in 2016.

Florida

Trump won Florida by a little over more than percentage point in 2016, and capturing the Sunshine State again this year is critical to his reelection prospects.

While Florida Democrats maintain an advantage in pre-election turnout, Catalist data shows the gap narrowing as more voters participate in early voting across the state.

Democrats now account for 43% of those early votes, while Republicans account for 36%. At this point in 2016, Republicans held a razor thin, approximately one-point lead in pre-election turnout.

This high turnout among Florida Democrats is reflected in recent polling about voter behavior in the Sunshine State.

New CNN polling conducted by SSRS shows about 35% of likely voters in Florida say they have already cast a ballot. Of that group, 71% say they back former Vice President Joe Biden and 27% back Trump. Fifty-six percent of those who have yet to cast a ballot say they back Trump, and 40% say they back Biden.

This is not predictive of ultimate outcome, however, as polling shows Democrats nationwide are more likely to cast their ballots before Election Day than Republicans.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats are also outpacing Republicans in their percentage of the pre-election votes, but once again, that margin is narrowing amid a surge in early voting in the Tar Heel State.

About 40% of the early votes that Catalist has analyzed comes from Democrats compared to 30% from Republicans so far. This is similar to the partisan breakdown of pre-election day votes at this point in 2016.

However, Republicans have narrowed the gap in their share of the early vote in recent weeks.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania — a key state that Trump won by less than one percentage point in 2016 — Democrats continue to hold a significant advantage over Republicans in their share of ballots already cast, according to Catalist party data.

About 70% of pre-election votes have come from Democrats so far, compared to about 20% from Republicans.

Michigan

Michigan's 16 electoral votes helped make Trump president four years ago when the state broke its six-election streak of voting for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Turnout in the Wolverine State this century peaked in 2008 with more than 5 million votes cast for president. A 2018 ballot measure changed Michigan's rules to allow anyone to vote by mail without an excuse, and ballot returns this year are more than triple what they were at this time four years ago, according to Catalist data.

A look at those returns by race shows ballots from Black voters make up 12% of the current vote, up from 8% at this time in the 2016 cycle. Democrats are hoping to increase turnout among Black voters in areas like Detroit in their quest to bring Michigan back into the blue column.

Arizona

Democrats looking to expand the electoral map are focusing heavily on Arizona's 11 electoral votes. The Biden campaign alone has already spent $14 million more in advertising than the Trump campaign, according to CMAG.

Democrats now lead Republicans in their share of ballots cast so far, 42% to 34% respectively. At this time four years ago, Republicans' 41% of ballots cast at the time outpaced the 38% cast by Democrats, according to Catalist data.

While this is good news for Democrats, slightly less than one-third of registered voters in the Grand Canyon State have no party affiliation, leaving plenty of room on both sides to drive up the vote in the final days of the campaign.

��vlog