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Today is February 19. How dangerous was the Corona virus outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess in February? A new study modeling the onboard epidemic reaches some sobering conclusions. It started with a single passenger and quickly ballooned toe a rate of infection four times that of Wuhan, China. Left unchecked, the study suggests, the disease would have eventually touched 79% of those on board some 2900 people. However, researchers also say that if everyone had been evacuated from the vessel when the first cases were discovered, the outbreak could have been contained to just 2% or 76 people. More than 600 people did get sick and seven of died, the study concludes. The key factor was this ship itself a floating Petri dish where people from all over the world spend weeks and tight quarters putting their trust in the cleaning staff and everyone else's hand hygiene. I would probably not advise anybody to go on a cruise for the foreseeable future until the situation settles down. Yet the cruise industry says that it's safe that they're initiating a bunch of new safeguards to make sure that every onboard is healthy. I mean that's a mixed message. Who should people believe at this point? Given what we've already seen in the last few weeks, I think that it's a very difficult standard to meet. Some experts say the Corona virus crisis points to a need to re imagine the spaces where we work play in travel, such as using materials that can better withstand vigorous cleaning. If I told you that your cruise ship was going to have a vinyl headboard, you might not think that sounds really luxurious. But I assure you there are properties that we can put into vinyl now that allow it to be both comfortable, luxurious and safe. The cruise industry is trying to weather the storm, making it easier to cancel on re book while slashing prices. The question is what will win out with consumers, the lure of a bargain vacation or warnings from public health officials? Jonathan Gatehouse, CBC News, Toronto