Two weeks ago, a person was more likely to meet someone with the same birthday, hit a hole-in-one in golf or be struck by lightning than to win the Mega Millions lottery jackpot.After changes were made to the game, that's still the case, but the chances are slightly better.The changes made improve the chance of winning any prize from 1 in 24 to 1 in 23, along with six of nine prize tiers — including the jackpot — by removing a Mega Ball from the pool of 1 through 25. A Mega Millions ticket comes with six numbers total. Five numbers between one and 70, drawn as white balls, and one golden ball, the Mega Ball, which is now chosen from numbers between 1 and 24.The changes, which began in the April 8 drawing, also increased the price of a single Mega Millions ticket from $2 to $5. They’ve also gotten rid of the ability to purchase a multiplier, also called a "Megaplier," by adding in a built-in multiplier of 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x. This has increased the minimum prizes in each tier.After the removal of a mega ball, the number of combinations possible for a ticket is now 290,472,336. The probability is about a 4% improvement from the prior one in 302,575,350 chances of winning the jackpot. The change is already pretty small and going up from not a lot, said Andrew Swift, a professor and department chair of the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Nebraska Omaha."You had very, very little chance of winning the jackpot before, and now you have slightly more, but still literally no chance of winning the jackpot now," Swift said.Probability is the mathematical representation of chance or uncertainty, according to Swift. The Mega Millions published the new probabilities for nine prize tiers ranging from one in 35 by matching just the gold mega ball to the jackpot.Six of the nine prize tiers, which all involve the player having the matching Mega Ball, now have higher probabilities of being achieved. The other three tiers of three, four and five white ball matches and no Mega Ball decreased in probability.A number as high as the jackpot’s 290 million possible number combinations can be difficult to grasp. If someone were to buy a Mega Millions ticket every second, it would take more than nine years to receive all possible number combinations. There aren’t many known things that have such a high probability, but one example of something with a lower chance of happening than winning the jackpot is securing a perfect March Madness bracket, which is 1 in 9.2 quintillion. "There's very few things that I would think that are on the same order of magnitude as winning the lottery," Swift said.Another way to think about it is that hitting the jackpot is close to the same chances as flipping a coin 28 times and only getting heads. Don’t believe it? Try it.Certain events in probability can often lead people's brains into believing or not believing something could happen, like being in disbelief about getting heads when flipping a coin 28 times. Another example is with choosing one of the hundreds of millions of number combinations.To explain how probabilities work for lottery outcomes, Swift often asks students what if the set of numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are a good or bad choice. "Pretty much most of the time, students tell me that if I pick the numbers one, two, three, four, five, that's a bad choice of numbers, because that's never going to be the numbers that get chosen, right?" Swift said.But it actually has the same chances of happening as any other ticket."And they'll say, 'Well, that's virtually impossible.' And then I say, 'Well yes, but I can say the same about any five numbers,'" Swift said. "It's just your brain doesn't like the fact that it's five numbers in a row."PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=
Two weeks ago, a person was more likely to meet someone with the same birthday, hit a hole-in-one in golf or be struck by lightning than to win the Mega Millions lottery jackpot.
After changes were made to the game, that's still the case, but the chances are slightly better.
The changes made improve the chance of winning any prize from 1 in 24 to 1 in 23, along with six of nine prize tiers — including the jackpot — by removing a Mega Ball from the pool of 1 through 25.
A Mega Millions ticket comes with six numbers total. Five numbers between one and 70, drawn as white balls, and one golden ball, the Mega Ball, which is now chosen from numbers between 1 and 24.
The , which began in the April 8 drawing, also increased the price of a single Mega Millions ticket from $2 to $5. They’ve also gotten rid of the ability to purchase a multiplier, also called a "Megaplier," by adding in a built-in multiplier of 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x. This has increased the minimum prizes in each tier.
After the removal of a mega ball, the number of combinations possible for a ticket is now 290,472,336.
The probability is about a 4% improvement from the prior one in 302,575,350 chances of winning the jackpot. The change is already pretty small and going up from not a lot, said Andrew Swift, a professor and department chair of the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the University of Nebraska Omaha.
"You had very, very little chance of winning the jackpot before, and now you have slightly more, but still literally no chance of winning the jackpot now," Swift said.
Probability is the mathematical representation of chance or uncertainty, according to Swift. The Mega Millions published the for nine prize tiers ranging from one in 35 by matching just the gold mega ball to the jackpot.
Six of the nine prize tiers, which all involve the player having the matching Mega Ball, now have higher probabilities of being achieved. The other three tiers of three, four and five white ball matches and no Mega Ball decreased in probability.
A number as high as the jackpot’s 290 million possible number combinations can be difficult to grasp. If someone were to buy a Mega Millions ticket every second, it would take more than nine years to receive all possible number combinations.
There aren’t many known things that have such a high probability, but one example of something with a lower chance of happening than winning the jackpot is securing a perfect March Madness bracket, which is .
"There's very few things that I would think that are on the same order of magnitude as winning the lottery," Swift said.
Another way to think about it is that hitting the jackpot is close to the same chances as flipping a coin 28 times and only getting heads. Don’t believe it? Try it.
Certain events in probability can often lead people's brains into believing or not believing something could happen, like being in disbelief about getting heads when flipping a coin 28 times. Another example is with choosing one of the hundreds of millions of number combinations.
To explain how probabilities work for lottery outcomes, Swift often asks students what if the set of numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are a good or bad choice.
"Pretty much most of the time, students tell me that if I pick the numbers one, two, three, four, five, that's a bad choice of numbers, because that's never going to be the numbers that get chosen, right?" Swift said.
But it actually has the same chances of happening as any other ticket.
"And they'll say, 'Well, that's virtually impossible.' And then I say, 'Well yes, but I can say the same about any five numbers,'" Swift said. "It's just your brain doesn't like the fact that it's five numbers in a row."
