Iowa Poll results: Final poll released ahead of 2024 election
The findings of the have been released just days ahead of the 2024 election.
The poll found that vice president and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris now has a slim lead over former President Donald Trump.
Harris leads 47% to 44% among likely voters, the poll found. This comes just more than a month after a September poll showed a narrow Trump lead.
The Register says the poll included responses from 808 likely Iowa voters and was conducted from Oct. 28-31, with a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.
The Iowa Democratic Party says this is evidence Iowa may be less conservative than once believed.
Trump won Iowa in 2020, beating Democratic candidate and eventual President Joe Biden, 53% to 45%.
The Democratic loss, combined with a chaotic presidential caucus, ultimately led the national party to question Iowa's significance and raise diversity concerns about the state. In February 2023, the state's Democratic caucuses were stripped of their first-in-the-nation status.
Now, the party is calling on voters to flip Iowa blue so that it can use the results as evidence Iowa's first in the nation status should be restored.
"We have three more days before this election, so remember, this is just a poll, and what really matters is that Iowans show up and make their voices heard," Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart said. "I hope this shows the rest of the country that Iowa is a good barometer for choosing good leadership and, and choosing and, and seeing the, the tenor of the country."
Republicans are calling the Iowa poll result an "outlier" because other results skew in favor of a republican win. Iowa GOP chairman Jeff Kaufmann is pointing to another poll by Emerson College Polling and RealClearDefense that shows Trump holds 53% of Iowans vote compared to 43% for Harris.
The Emerson poll says it included responses from 800 likely Iowa voters and was conducted from Nov. 1-2 with a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.
"Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll," Kaufmann said. "Emerson College, released (Saturday), far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology."
vlog's political analyst Dennis Goldford says the most sure takeaway from the polling data is that voters on both sides will be motivated to turn out as a result.
"This will enthuse Harris supporters to think there maybe really is a shot," Goldford said. "But it will also enthuse Trump supporters, who will be told by the Trump campaign, 'We really need you to turn out.'"