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Waves grow up to 13 feet tall in California as Earth warms, research finds

Waves grow up to 13 feet tall in California as Earth warms, research finds
CRUZ WITH MORE ON WHAT EXPERTS ARE SAYING.. ARI? .. ERIN.. THE UC SANTA CRUZ OCEANOGRAPHER I SPOKE SAYS THE WAVES ARE ALSO GROWING TO BE MORE VICIOUS IN RECENT YEARS... BEHIND ME IS A RESULT OF THAT.. WHERE A CHUNK OF THE ROAD GOT HAMMERED BY WAVES AND CRUMBLED INTO THE OCEAN LAST WINTER.. ## ((NATS)) ((COVER FIRST SOT)) <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 00:32 IT'S AFFECTING ALL OF US. IT'S HERE, IT'S NOW, IT'S REAL AND IT'S EVERYWHERE. 00:37 THE CLIMATE CRISIS CONTINUES.. AND OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE ON THE FRONTLINES... IN A NEW STUDY, EXPERTS GATHERED HISTORICAL DATA FROM THE PAST 90 YEARS.. TO TRACK THE INCREASING HEIGHT OF THE SURF... SHOWING THAT AVERAGE WINTER WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE GROWN ABOUT A FOOT SINCE 1970.. <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 7:53 IT'S JUST ONE MORE INDICATION THAT THINGS ARE GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. IT'S LIKE A GIANT CHEMISTRY EXPERIMENT, ONLY WE CAN'T TURN IT OFF. 8:01 BASED OFF THE UNIQUE METHOD OF STUDYING SEISMIC RECORDS, DATING BACK TO THE 1930'S... GIANT WAVES ARE BECOMING MORE COMMON.. WITH SOME MEASURING UP TO 13- FEET.. <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 7:36 THIS STUDY IS CONFIRMING WHAT WE HAVE KNOWN IS THAT WAVES ARE GETTING BIGGER, MORE POWERFUL, THE WEATHERS ARE GETTING CRAZIER. SO THAT'S GOING TO BE MORE IMPACT ON THE SHORELINE 7:45 UC SANTA CRUZ OCEANOGRAPHER GARY GRIGGS.. SAYS ON TOP OF THEIR HEIGHT, THEY'RE ALSO PACKING A PUNCH... THAT POWER ON FULL DISPLAY LAST WINTER.. WHEN WAVES CAUSED PART OF WEST CLIFF DRIVE TO CRUMBLE. <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 6:43 HERE, THE HIGHER SEA LEVEL IS AND THE BIGGER THE WAVES, THE MORE THE CLIFFS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THOSE WAVES IN THE FASTER THE RETREAT WILL TAKE PLACE. 6:51 STRONGER WAVES AND RISING SEA LEVELS.. CONTINUE TO WORSEN.. GRIGGS SAYS ALL WE NEED IS AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET.. AND QUOTE, "WE'RE IN BIG TROUBLE". <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 4:40 BY 2100, IT COULD BE TWO FEET, THREE FEET, SIX FEET, EIGHT FEET, TEN FEET. AND IF YOU STOP AND LOOK AT WHAT'S AT TEN FEET, ALL OF SFO GOES UNDERWATER AT TWO FEET. 4:50 EXPERTS POINT OUT PROJECTS THAT AIM TO PREVENT THE DAMAGE WONT STAND A CHANCE.. AND DO NOT OFFER A LONG TERM SOLUTION. <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 9:22 THERE'S ARMOR, SEAWALLS. WE'RE NOT GOING TO DO THAT MUCH LONGER. WE CAN TRY TO DUMP MORE SAND ON THE BEACH. VERY EXPENSIVE, VERY SHORT LIVED. 9:28 <GARY GRIGGS // UCSC OCEANOGRAPHER> 8:38 WE ONLY HAVE ONE PLANET. THERE'S NO PLANET A OR B, SO WE'VE GOT TO TAKE CARE OF IT, BUT WE'RE NOT DOING A VERY EXPERTS ALSO POINT OUT... THAT THE WINT
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Waves grow up to 13 feet tall in California as Earth warms, research finds
Waves are getting bigger and surf at least 13 feet (about 4 meters) tall is becoming more common off California's coast as the planet warms, according to innovative new research that tracked the increasing height from historical data gathered over the past 90 years.Oceanographer Peter Bromirski at Scripps Institution of Oceanography used the unusual method of analyzing seismic records dating back to 1931 to measure the change in wave height.When waves ricochet off the shore, they collide with incoming waves and cause a ripple of energy through the seafloor that can be picked up by seismographs designed to detect earthquakes. The greater the impact, the taller the wave is.Until now, scientists relied on a network of buoys by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that collect data on wave height along U.S. coasts, but that data along the California coast only went back to 1980."Until I stumbled upon this data set, it was almost impossible to make that comparison with any kind of reliability," Bromirski said.To go back further, Bromirski gathered a team of undergraduate students to analyze daily seismic readings covering decades of winters. It was a slow, painstaking process that took years and involved digitizing drums of paper records. But he said it was important in learning how things have changed over nearly a century along California's coast.They found that average winter wave heights have grown by as much as a foot since 1970 when global warming is believed to have begun accelerating. Swells at least 13 feet tall (about 4 meters) are also happening a lot more often, occurring at least twice as often between 1996 to 2016 than from 1949 to 1969.Bromirski was also surprised to find extended periods of exceptionally low wave heights prior to about 1970 and none of those periods since."Erosion, coastal flooding, damage to coastal infrastructure is, you know, something that we're seeing more frequently than in the past," Bromirski said. "And, you know, combined with sea level rise, bigger waves mean that is going to happen more often."Changes in waves are showing up in other ways, too."There's about twice as many big wave events since 1970 as there was prior to 1970," Bromirski said.The study, published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, adds to the evidence that climate change is causing massive shifts in the world's oceans. Other studies have shown waves are not only getting taller but also more powerful.Damage from intense storms and massive surf is already playing out. This winter, California's severe storms and giant waves collapsed bluffs, damaged piers and flooded parts of the state's picturesque Highway 1.Bromirski said that is a harbinger of the future. Scientists say global warming may even be accelerating, ushering in even bigger waves.As sea levels rise and storms intensify, bigger waves will cause more flooding in coastal communities, erode away beaches, trigger landslides and destabilize remaining bluffs, he said.These issues are of particular concern along the California coast, where sea cliffs have already started crumbling and brought down homes in recent years. Because of sea level rise, projections at the end of the 21st century indicate even moderate waves might cause damage comparable to that of extreme weather events, according to the study.Oceanographer Gary Griggs at the University of California Santa Cruz said while a jump of a foot in wave height over more than 50 years is not huge, the findings are consistent with what scientists know is happening to the world's oceans as they warm: They are becoming increasingly violent due to more extreme storms and wreaking havoc along coasts.Griggs, who was not involved in the research, said it adds to growing scientific data showing how fast the world is warming and how quickly seas are rising."We know hurricanes are more intense and last longer, and now we've got, you know, waves increasing in power. So those are all consistent," he said. "The challenge ... is sort of how to really respond to that."

Waves are getting bigger and surf at least 13 feet (about 4 meters) tall is becoming more common off California's coast as the planet warms, according to innovative new research that tracked the increasing height from historical data gathered over the past 90 years.

Oceanographer Peter Bromirski at Scripps Institution of Oceanography used the unusual method of analyzing seismic records dating back to 1931 to measure the change in wave height.

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When waves ricochet off the shore, they collide with incoming waves and cause a ripple of energy through the seafloor that can be picked up by seismographs designed to detect earthquakes. The greater the impact, the taller the wave is.

Until now, scientists relied on a network of buoys by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that collect data on wave height along U.S. coasts, but that data along the California coast only went back to 1980.

"Until I stumbled upon this data set, it was almost impossible to make that comparison with any kind of reliability," Bromirski said.

To go back further, Bromirski gathered a team of undergraduate students to analyze daily seismic readings covering decades of winters. It was a slow, painstaking process that took years and involved digitizing drums of paper records. But he said it was important in learning how things have changed over nearly a century along California's coast.

They found that average winter wave heights have grown by as much as a foot since 1970 when global warming is believed to have begun accelerating. Swells at least 13 feet tall (about 4 meters) are also happening a lot more often, occurring at least twice as often between 1996 to 2016 than from 1949 to 1969.

Bromirski was also surprised to find extended periods of exceptionally low wave heights prior to about 1970 and none of those periods since.

"Erosion, coastal flooding, damage to coastal infrastructure is, you know, something that we're seeing more frequently than in the past," Bromirski said. "And, you know, combined with sea level rise, bigger waves mean that is going to happen more often."

Changes in waves are showing up in other ways, too.

"There's about twice as many big wave events since 1970 as there was prior to 1970," Bromirski said.

The study, published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, adds to the evidence that climate change is causing massive shifts in the world's oceans. Other studies have shown waves are not only getting taller but also more powerful.

Damage from intense storms and massive surf is already playing out. This winter, California's severe storms and giant waves collapsed bluffs, damaged piers and flooded parts of the state's picturesque Highway 1.

Bromirski said that is a harbinger of the future. Scientists say global warming may even be accelerating, ushering in even bigger waves.

As sea levels rise and storms intensify, bigger waves will cause more flooding in coastal communities, erode away beaches, trigger landslides and destabilize remaining bluffs, he said.

These issues are of particular concern along the California coast, where sea cliffs have already started crumbling and brought down homes in recent years. Because of sea level rise, projections at the end of the 21st century indicate even moderate waves might cause damage comparable to that of extreme weather events, according to the study.

Oceanographer Gary Griggs at the University of California Santa Cruz said while a jump of a foot in wave height over more than 50 years is not huge, the findings are consistent with what scientists know is happening to the world's oceans as they warm: They are becoming increasingly violent due to more extreme storms and wreaking havoc along coasts.

Griggs, who was not involved in the research, said it adds to growing scientific data showing how fast the world is warming and how quickly seas are rising.

"We know hurricanes are more intense and last longer, and now we've got, you know, waves increasing in power. So those are all consistent," he said. "The challenge ... is sort of how to really respond to that."